Brooklyn Nets Team Preview

2020-21 Record: 48-24 82-Game Projection: 55-27

2020-21 Pythagorean Record: 46-26 82-Game Pythagorean Projection: 52-30

2021-22 Line: 55.5 Wins (1st in East)

Key Additions:

Though it wasn’t quite as explosive as their summer of 2019, the Nets have been remarkably busy this off-season.

I think the most meaningful addition has to be bringing in Patty Mills for the mini MLE. The 33-year-old point guard is only a depth piece on this roster, but he’s a pretty damn good depth piece. His shooting and passing alone make him an incredibly dangerous weapon in an already historically talented offense.

Brooklyn also traded for Jevon Carter to accompany Mills off the bench. His strengths and weaknesses are the polar opposite of Mills but he brings some much-needed defensive punch to this rotation.

They also brought in DeAndre’ Bembry, James Johnson and traded for Sekou Doumboua for depth on the wing. While none of the three are big names at this point in their careers, all three should have opportunities for minutes given the lack of forward talent behind Kevin Durant.

Brooklyn didn’t have much frontcourt activity early in the summer but came alive recently in adding Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge and Jahlil Okafor.

I really hope Aldridge is the is the player we remember but it’s really hard to know how much to expect out of him post-unretirement. Millsap has regressed quite a bit over the past couple seasons, but his defensive acumen should compliment Aldridge and Blake Griffin well. Okafor is an okay 11th man, but he’s pretty solidly buried on this depth chart.

Brooklyn also brought in three rookies: Cam Thomas (drafted 27th), Day’Ron Sharpe (drafted 29th) and David Duke Jr. (Undrafted). I expected Sharpe to have a role before the recent big men additions, but now I can’t see any of the three playing non-garbage time minutes this season.

Key Losses:

The Nets are a better team now than they were at the end of last season but they still lost quite a bit of talent along the way.

Spencer Dinwiddie was always going to get more money than the Nets could offer but he is still a meaningful loss. Mills should replace most of his bench scoring production but losing a player who scored an efficient 20.6 ppg just two year ago – even one coming off ACL surgery – will always hurt your depth.

Jeff Green has to be the biggest loss of the summer, though. He’s become a really capable 3-and-D wing in the latter half of his career and I’m not confident Johnson, Doumbouya or Bembry can fill that role at an above replacement level.

It’s worth mentioning the DeAndre Jordan trade here, though I think removing him from the rotation will help this team long-term.

Jordan started most of last season and was, in theory, this team’s best interior defender. Given how much he’s regressed over the past couple seasons – there’s a reason he didn’t play a single minute in the playoffs – I expect the four man center rotation to more than survive his absence.

	Point Guard	Off-Guard	Wing	Big Man
Starter	Kyrie Irving	James Harden	Kevin Durant	Blake Griffin
		Joe Harris
Backup	Patty Mills	Bruce Brown	DeAndre’ Bembry	Nicolas Claxton
	Jevon Carter		James Johnson	Paul Millsap
				LaMarcus Aldridge
Depth	David Duke Jr.	Cameron Thomas	Sekou Doumbouya	Jahlil Okafor
				Day’Ron Sharpe

Biggest Strength – Shot Creation

There’s not much analysis needed here. We know who headlines this roster.

This team is on the shortlist for the greatest collection of offensive talent the NBA has ever seen. They might be the headline.

They need far more on-court results before we mention them in the same breath as some of the great teams in recent memory, but I don’t think any roster we’ve ever seen can match the on-paper shot creation the Nets can put out there.

One Key Question – How does the center rotation unfold?

Even without Jordan, the Nets have a pretty deep center rotation of Griffin, Millsap, Aldridge and Nicolas Claxton.

Griffin is the best passer and is still a pretty capable scorer but he’s a defensive liability against quicker opponents. Millsap is the best defender and has become a knockdown shooter but he’s a much more niche role player than he was in Atlanta.

Aldridge will almost certainly still be a very good mid-range and occasional three-point shooter, but everything else is a question. Claxton is by far the best athlete and rebounder but he is far more of an unknown in comparison to the three All-Stars surrounding him on the depth chart.

I personally expect Griffin and Millsap to earn the vast majority of opening and closing minutes with Claxton playing a big chunk in the 2nd and early-4th quarters. Ultimately, while I really like Claxton’s game, I think Steve Nash will opt for the security of the veterans when it matters.

The Case for Over 55.5 wins:

• I have to believe this team will have better injury luck than they did a year ago. Following the James Harden trade, this team went 41-18 (or roughly a 57-win pace) all while Harden missed 23 games, Durant missed 33 and Kyrie Irving 12. Just given the age of this roster it will be among the most injured in the league but any step towards average will be a massive step towards winning 56+ games.

• The defense will be bad, maybe very bad, but I don’t it will matter all that much. The Nets are going to be so historically dominant on offense that they won’t need to even try on that end to coast through two-thirds of their games. You can count the number of teams who have a hope of stopping the Nets on one hand. How are a top-ten defense like the Grizzlies going to stop this this team from scoring 130 if they’re mentally engaged? They won’t. Sometimes it’s that simple.

• My final point is merely context. In the past decade, 27 teams have won at least 56 games in a regular season. If you count the teams who were on pace to reach that mark last season, that number jumps to 30. I struggle to see an outcome where this isn’t one of the 30-best regular season teams of the last decade. The three stars played just 13 games together last season. They want to play together. They want to dominate.

The Case for Under 55.5 wins:

• The main argument unfortunately comes down to injuries. It’s reasonable to expect Durant to miss time every year given his injury history. Irving hasn’t played 70+ games in five years. Harden has been mostly healthy, but it’s possible both the on and off-court miles he’s put on himself are beginning to catch up with him. This team can still win if they’re without one of their stars but, if injuries begin to pile up, they may coast through the regular season in hopes of just getting healthy for when it matter.

• The other unpredictable factor is apathy. This team knows it’s historic. Their bar for success is title or bust and it’s certainly possible they only decide to start trying in May. If that is how they approach this season, 56 wins will be an incredibly difficult number to reach.

• My only on-court argument is the center rotation. The Nets don’t need the centers to be great – or even above average – but they do need them to be serviceable. It’s possible that Griffin, Millsap and Aldridge just aren’t effective NBA players any more and Claxton isn’t ready for a bigger role. I think those concerns will matter more in the playoffs, but very few teams walk into 56 wins. If the center rotation is actively bad, that could be enough to open the door for the under.

My Pick: Over 55.5 wins

This is one of my favorite bets on the board.

If we knew that the Nets would be healthy and care about the regular season, this number would be in the mid-60s. I believe they will be healthy (enough) and will care about the regular season (enough) for this over hit hit pretty comfortably.

If you’re more skeptical about their effort and/or ability to stay healthy than I am, they are still +110 to make win the East and a Finals Matchup with the Lakers is still +500. Even if you just take it as an opportunity to hedge against it in the playoffs, them being plus odds to come out of the East feels like stealing.