Milwaukee Bucks Team Preview

2020-21 Record: 46-26 82-Game Projected Record: 52-30

2020-21 Pythagorean Record: 48-24 82-Game Pythagorean Projection: 55-27

2021-22 Line: 54.5 Wins (2nd in Eastern Conference)

Key Additions:

Milwaukee wasn’t too ambitious this summer (as is often the case with teams coming off a title) but they did add a couple important depth pieces.

George Hill was signed for two years to be the undisputed backup point guard. He’s perfectly fine for that role. An adequate defender, good passer who doesn’t turn the ball over and a sneaky elite shooter. He’ll probably be nudged out of the rotation in the playoffs but, for the regular season, hard to argue against the signing.

They also signed Rodney Hood and traded for Grayson Allen for some wing/off-guard depth. I think Allen is going to play quite a bit for this team behind Donte DiVincenzo. He’s a good shooter, plays hard (often too hard) and does a lot of what Milwaukee looks for out of their two-guards. Hood has really struggled with injuries over the past few years but, if heathy, there’s a chance he could be a decent facsimile of Khris Middleton for the second unit offense.

The Bucks also brought in Semi Ojeleye who looks like he’ll be fighting with Jordan Nwora for the scrap minutes of the forward rotation. They also drafted Sandro Mamukelashvili 54th overall and Georgios Kalatizakis 60th overall. I can’t pronounce either name nor can I see either factoring into the rotation.

Key Losses:

Jeff Teague is currently un-signed but he was pretty clearly like-for-like replaced by Hill in the rotation. Justin Jackson and Axel Toupane are both gone as well.

Bryn Forbes returned to San Antonio in free agency but, like Teague, he has been pretty seamlessly replaced in the rotation by Allen. Forbes is probably a better player but Allen is at least playable defensively and has the upside to be in the playoff rotation so I see this trade-off as a wash.

The one truly massive loss for this team was PJ Tucker.

I don’t understand it. At all. It would have been malpractice to let him leave at all, let alone to a conference rival. Tucker was their small-ball five. Their Kevin Durant defender.

Following the breadcrumbs, it seems like this team chose to keep Bobby Portis over Tucker and that just doesn’t make any sense to me. Tucker was more foundational to the title run and players like Portis are far easier to find on the open market and at the trade deadline. There are two reasons this team won a title: Giannis and defense. Now that second reason has taken a pretty significant step back.

I simply don’t understand it.

Bucks 2021-22 Projected Depth Chart

Biggest Strength – Giannis. Duh.

He’s now the most accomplished 26-year-old in NBA history. More than LeBron, more than Jordan, more than Kareem. More than anyone.

Nothing about Giannis’ personality or history indicates he is going to rest on his laurels following the title. I think there is a far greater chance we see his best season yet. And, considering all we’ve already seen from him, that would be utterly remarkable.

Durant would get my vote for the best player in the NBA, but there is no regular season cheat code as dominant as Giannis.

One Key Question – Is this a good enough guard rotation?

Jrue Holiday is an absolute stud. His shot selection may drive you crazy but he’s one of the best defenders in the NBA and fits really well with this team. Hill is totally adequate behind him.

DiVincenzo was having a really good season before he was unfortunately lost for the playoffs and getting him back for this year will be huge. Allen and Connaughton are, again, fine.

There aren’t any glaring holes but this just feels like an extremely average guard rotation. Outside of Holiday, no one else really project as a starter-level player. I like DiVincenzo, but he is so good for this team because he fits so well into his role, not because he’s a clear top-25 shooting guard in the league.

The Bucks won a title with this rotation minus DiVincenzo so maybe this is an unnecessary question. But, if you’re looking for holes in this roster, the backcourt is clearly the place to start.

The Case for Over 54.5 wins:

• I have no doubt this team will be motivated to back up their dominance from last spring/summer. They’ve been doubted forever, now they have all the confidence in the world. There are a lot of parallels between Milwaukee’s come up and Golden State’s a few years ago. If that trajectory holds, this would be their 73-9 year.

• Okay, they’re not going 73-9. Obviously. But, this team has won the equivalent of 55+ games in each of the last three seasons. There’s no on-court reason to believe they’ll fall behind that pace this season.

• I also think homecourt advantage means a lot to this team. It took everything they had to get past the Nets last season and, if Game 7 had been in Brooklyn, I’m not sure they do get past them. I think getting the top seed in the East is a big priority for this team, far more than it would be for most teams coming off a title.

• The Bucks absolutely feast on the lower tier of the NBA. They went 19-6 against the ten worst teams in the league last season. Giannis gives this team such an incredibly high floor that they simply don’t lose against bad teams.

• The final point is, appropriately, about the most overlooked star in the NBA. And Middleton is a star. The list of players to average 20+ ppg while shooting 40+ percent on threes and 50+ percent on twos in both of the last two seasons is short. It’s only one name: Middleton. He is one of the truly elite scorers we have in this league and never gets recognized as such.

The Case for Under 54.5 wins:

• There is always a chance the post-Finals hangover hits this team hard. They know they can win it all now, so why push in the regular season? I don’t expect this team to mail in all 82 games (or even close) but they could easily coast through the year and be happy to finish third in the East somewhere around 52-30.

• If there’s an injury to either Holiday or Hill, this backcourt is in major trouble. I mentioned how much I question the talent of that unit when fully healthy, but this point guard rotation is very precarious.

• Not to mention if Giannis misses time. If the backcourt takes a hit, this becomes an imbalanced but still talented roster. If Giannis misses a couple weeks or a month, this becomes a lottery team until he’s back. The likelihood he misses extended time seems tiny given he seems to have taken the mantle from LeBron as “player most likely to look like he’s done for the year with a knee injury only come back and drop 40 and 15” but the threat is always looming.

• Who is the go-to wing defender on this team? Their guard and forward defenders are set, but I’m not sure DiVincenzo and Middleton are quite good enough to fill that role against the best teams in the league. This shouldn’t be a major issue against most teams, but on certain nights this could become a pretty significant hole.

My Pick: Over 54.5 wins

I really believe this team will push to have homecourt advantage once again this season. I also believe Brooklyn is going to be really, really good during the regular season and therefore Milwaukee is going to have to win close to 60 games to reach that goal.

The critique about the Bucks before their title run was that they were “just a regular season team”. We now know that was unfounded but its basis was that this is, in fact, a truly incredible regular season team. I have no reason to believe that won’t continue this year and am confident in the over here.