Top NBA Player Props for Friday (Feb 11)

Goga Bitadze – Under 11.5 Points (-130)

Full transparency, when I first looked through the Pacers’ props I was looking for overs. With Caris LeVert and Domontas Sabonis gone, there is a ton of opportunity for previous backups to step into larger roles and handle more of the scoring/rebounding/assisting burden. In principle, Bitadze fits that bill. In reality, he’s just not that guy.

Bitadze is a perfectly serviceable third big. He’s a bruiser, an okay rim protector, a guy who doesn’t foul a lot and can finish around the rim. Again, he’s fine. A waste of a pick at 18th overall, but fine.

What he isn’t, however, is a lead frontcourt scorer. And he’s certainly not better than Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen, his two primary matchups in this game. Bitadze has averaged 9.6 points in his last ten games but this past Sunday when Indiana last played Cleveland, he was limited to just four points on four shots in 16 minutes.

Whether it’s Allen or Mobley stifling him at the rim or Kevin Love tearing him apart on the defensive end, this is an abysmal matchup for Bitadze. He may be good for a dozen points against some teams over the rest of the season, but certainly not in this game against this matchup.

Mattise Thybulle – Under 3.5 Rebounds (-137)

Now that we live in a post-Harden-for-Simmons landscape, the Sixers are clearly better offensively and indisputably worse defensively. That trade-off is obvious. What may be more hidden in that trade, though, is that Philadelphia also lost Andre Drummond and now has a major dearth of rebounding in the second unit.

Because of this, I think every Sixer rebounding prop got bumped up by one or two boards. I think most of them are accurate, but the one that stood out to me was Thybulle’s.

Thybulle is one of my favorite players in the NBA – Go Dawgs – but for all of his immense, unique defensive talent, he is a pretty poor rebounder for his size/position. He’s averaging just 2.3 rebounds per game on the season and has only grabbed 4+ boards ten times. That’s just not a focus of his game and I don’t expect Drummond’s absence to really impact his production in that way. This is an easy under for me.

Keldon Johnson – Over 1.5 Assists (-152)

I’ll keep this one short because the analysis is pretty simple.

Now that Derrick White is a Celtic, someone is going to have to inherit his distributor role. Obviously, Dejounte Murray will remain the lead guard, but secondary creator duties will be spread among the other guards/wings on the roster.

I don’t expect Johnson to suddenly start putting up five assists a night, but I do expect an uptick from the 1.8 apg he’s currently averaging. Two assists isn’t a high bar at all and, considering their opponent, I feel very confident picking him to clear that bar tonight.

Marcus Smart – Over 5.5 Assists (+120)

I just mentioned Derrick White’s move to Boston and that trade heavily impacts my pick on this prop.

There’s still a question of if White will be available for the Celtics tonight but, even if he is, he will be coming off the bench in a likely limited role. Add in that Dennis Schroder is now a Rocket, and the point guard responsibilities fall almost entirely on Smart’s shoulders – at least for tonight.

We all know Smart is never one to back down from a challenge and I’m confident he sees himself as capable of being the full-time point guard for this team. I expect him to be in full-on floor general mode tonight.

Smart is already averaging 5.4 assists per game on the season and has tallied at least six in six of his last nine games. Add in that you can get this over for plus odds and this is one of my favorite props of the night.

DeMar DeRozan – Over 29.5 Points (-125)

This last one feels obvious and, frankly, that’s because it is.

DeRozan is on an absolute tear over the past month. He’s averaging 28.2 points since the start of January and 33.1 points in his last 12 games. In those dozen games, he’s scored 30+ eight times.

The Timberwolves have defenders that I like, but none I feel confident can slow DeRozan down. Their strengths are on point guards and bigger forwards, not pure scoring wings. Add in that the Bulls still won’t have Lonzo Ball and will potentially be without Nikola Vucevic, and the scoring burden will rest entirely on DeRozan and Zach LaVine.

29.5 points is a very high number, but I am more confident in DeRozan hitting that number than just about any player in the league.