After yesterday’s perfect 5-0 night of props, there was no chance I would skip the opportunity to keep the momentum rolling into Saturday’s 11-game slate!!
Ja Morant – Over 5.5 Rebounds (-118)
Taking overs in a game as exciting as Grizzlies-Hornets promises to be is easy. Finding the ones that haven’t been juiced beyond value, however, is a little more difficult.
I looked at all the points props for this game and felt that most, if not all, had been pushed slightly above my comfort zone. I’m not going to take the under for those props, but I also didn’t like paying into a Morant or LaMelo Ball prop that is taking the desire to take overs into account. So, instead, I went a little bit of a different direction.
As Morant has grown into an All-NBA player this season, his responsibilities have expanded. Obviously he’s scoring more, but he’s also become a more physical and consistent rebounder. For the season, Morant is averaging just a tick under six rebounds per game but, over his last 11 games, he’s up at 6.4 per game.
The Grizzlies are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA and the Hornets are one of the worst. I expect this to be an incredibly exciting, high-paced game and, given Charlotte’s recent shooting woes, expect quite a few rebounding opportunities as well. I think we are going to see a massive game from Morant, and I really like this prop.
Dejounte Murray – Over 21.5 Points (-109)
The justification for this pick is pretty simple and two-fold.
The first is that Murray is now the only real point guard on this roster who Pop trusts to play major minutes. Yes, I know they spent a lottery pick on Josh Primo and Tre Jones is hanging around too, but the trade of Derrick White put even more of a burden on Murray that I think he’s more than capable of handling.
The other, is who exactly on the Pelicans is going to stop Murray from doing anything and everything he wants in this game? Devonte’ Graham? CJ McCollum? Jose Alvarado? This may be the worst perimeter defense in the entire league right now, and Murray should have his way in this game.
This is my favorite prop of the night. I know the number is inflated a bit up to 21.5 but the Spurs offense has been rolling of late and Murray is the undisputed leader of that unit. I think he’s going to tear this defense apart and 22 points – a mark he’s reached in 10 of his last 18 games – is a more-than-reasonable bar to clear.
Bam Adebayo – Over 19.5 Points (-120)
The logic behind this prop is very similar to the second half of Murray’s.
The Nets clearly have a deep frontcourt, but their defensive talent is going to be pretty lacking in this game. Nic Claxton and LaMarcus Aldridge are still out and it’s unclear whether Andre Drummond will be suiting up for his first game as Net. That leaves Blake Griffin, Day’Ron Sharpe and James Johnson as the primary defenders for Adebayo. I don’t expect that to go well.
Adebayo is averaging just 18.5 points per game since returning from injury last month, but he’s scored 20+ in four of his last five games. He’s rounding back into offensive shape and, against this Net defense, I think this could be his best scoring night since his injury.
Klay Thompson – Over 17.5 Points (-123)
I mean, this one again is pretty simple.
Warriors vs. Lakers is always fun. Steph vs. LeBron is always fun. I’m incredibly excited for this game for a multitude of reasons, not the least of which will be the take tsunami that ensures regardless of the outcome. The reason I’m targeting a Klay prop, though, is because of how LeBron teams have historically tried to beat the Warriors.
The Lakers’ best chance in this game is to try and neutralize Steph’s impact. That is the strategy the Cavs used in four straight Finals – to a zero Finals MVP success – and it’s what I expect them to try and do in this game too. You remember those plays where the Cavs sent two players at Steph during a fast break and left an open dunk for Durant? That’s what I expect for this game.
And if that is the course of action the Lakers take, you know who that leaves open.
Klay loves playing the Lakers and I can promise you he’s going to get his shots up in this game. Steve Kerr just announced Klay’s minutes limit has been increased a bit and we’ve already seen him average 20.3 points per game in his last three. It may take him 15 shots to get there, but I have very little doubt in my mind that Klay will score 20+ in this game.
Wendell Carter Jr. – Under 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
My first four props have all been All-Star overs. The final is a role player under. Go figure.
This isn’t a flashy prop or one you’re going to sit down and watch, but I think there’s some real value here.
The Suns have been the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA over the last ten games. They’ve also had the third-best offense in the league over that stretch. Meaning the Magic won’t be able to grab many offensive rebounds and the Suns probably won’t miss enough to give them a ton of defensive rebounding opportunities. Hence the under.
I do think the Magic are at the point in the season when they are going to experiment with lineups too. After a seven-game streak of double-digit rebounds earlier in the season, Carter Jr. has grabbed ten boards in just four of his last 11 games. The Magic are playing Mo Bamba more as well as playing the Wagner brothers together, diminishing Carter Jr.’s role a bit.
Again, this isn’t an exciting prop and I certainly don’t condone anyone actually sitting down to watch Suns-Magic, but the value is there for an under.
Pacific Action 
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