Best NBA Player Props for Friday (Feb 25)

Tyrese Haliburton – Over 30.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-108)

My thoughts about the Haliburton-Sabonis trade are pretty clear. I think it will make the Kings a better basketball team this season but I despite the motivations behind making the move. On the other hand, I love it for the Pacers and I’m not sure it even makes them that much worse of a team in the short term.

Haliburton has been allowed to run the show in Indiana. He has been afforded freedom that he was never given in Sacramento. I know we only have four games of evidence, but those have been four damn impressive games.

In his first week as a Pacer, Haliburton has put up a stat line of 20.8 points, 11.0 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game. Yes, those numbers may be a tiny bit inflated, but I think his future is much closer to that level of production than the 14-7.5-4 he was putting up in Sacramento.

Add in the very healthy matchup boost of playing against an OKC defense on a back-to-back and missing Lu Dort, and I expect to see yet another massive performance out of Haliburton tonight.

Julius Randle – Under 21.5 Points (-117)

I don’t have a ton of analysis for this one, other than I think this number is just wrong.

The Heat have maybe the best halfcourt defense in the NBA. Or, at least they’re in the conversation with Boston and a healthy Golden State. This team is suffocating when healthy and they’re particularly good at limiting shots inside the arch. Miami allows the fewest 2PA and 2PM in the league. Can you guess where Randle likes to operate?

I’ll take Adeabyo in this matchup 10 times out of 10 and I’ll take any opportunity I can to fade this Knicks offense. If Randle hitting this number comes down to his three-point shooting, I’m extremely confident in the under. Add in that this number is slightly inflated over his season average – for some inexplicable reason – and this is my favorite bet of the night.

Joel Embiid – Over 3.5 Assists (-110)

The logic behind this prop may be a little confusing at first.

Yes, this will be James Harden’s first game suiting up for Philadelphia. And yes, I fully expect Harden to project the ball-dominant, defacto point guard role he was playing in Brooklyn onto this Sixer offense; but I’m not sure we’re going to see that tonight.

Harden has never been one to take a backseat in an offense, but I genuinely think he might in this game (and possibly for only this game). He knows Embiid is an MVP frontrunner and this is going to remain his team and city, no matter what Harden does for the rest of his time in Philly.

I expect we’ll see the ball in Embiid’s hands a ton tonight. And, with him continuing to run the offense, I think his assist over is an easy play. Embiid has tallied at least four assists in 11 of his last 13 games and I think that is still going to be a major part of his game. I won’t go as far as to fade Harden, but I think the best angle is to back Embiid.

Russell Westbrook – Under 31.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-115)

Why is this the line for Westbrook? No, seriously, why is this number 31.5?

Lest you forget, the last time we saw this Laker team they were in complete disarray, fuming due to the lack of progress made at the trade deadline. One could argue – and I am that one – that the clearest manifestation of that lack of progress, at least from LeBron and AD’s perspectives, is that Westbrook is still wearing a Laker uniform.

I don’t think LeBron and AD are going to freeze Russ out of the offense or anything quite that dramatic. That would be very counterproductive if the ultimate goal is to indeed trade him this summer. But I do think Westbrook will return to a secondary playmaker roll behind LeBron and now may be third in line for touches behind him and Carmelo Anthony.

Westbrook has gone under 31.5 in five of his last six games, and I expect tonight to extend that trend to six out of seven.

CJ McCollum – Over 22.5 Points (-124)

This one comes down to a simple calculus: without Chris Paul, the Suns just don’t have an above-average, point-of-attack defender to put on McCollum.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m as big of a Mikail Bridges fan as there is; but he is a perfect matchup to put on Brandon Ingram. That leaves the collection of Devin Booker, Aaron Holiday and Landry Shamet to deal with McCollum. Let’s just say I like CJ’s chances in any of those matchups.

Following his first game transitioning to New Orleans, McCollum has averaged 31.8 ppg in his last four games as a Pelican. This line is at least two points too low and I love the over in this spot.