Get ready for three of Saturday’s biggest games with my favorite NBA Player Props featuring a Luka Doncic over, an Anthony Edwards under, and why Steph Curry will continue to haunt the Celtics!!
Anthony Edwards – Under 4.5 Assists (-132)
This is a play built on one pretty simple idea: Anthony Edwards doesn’t pass the ball in back-to-backs.
So far this season, Edwards has played in the second leg of three back-to-backs. His assist totals in those games have been 2, 3, and 2 (2.3 per game). He floats in and out of these games and when he gets the ball, he shoots.
This is a spot where you might initially look for an over given the Trail Blazers are 25th in opponent APG. But, the three teams Edwards has played in B2Bs this season have been Washington (eight in opponent APG), Houston (26th), and San Antonio (30th). With the exception of Washington, Edwards has played two teams who leak assists and yet has still gone under this number. Comfortably.
Your other concern may be that Edwards is averaging 4.8 APG since Karl-Anthony Towns’ injury but that number is massively buoyed by one 8-Assist game against Indiana. Uncoincidentally, that Pacer game came after the Timberwolves has three days off.
I’m not fazed by that recent trend. Under.
Luka Doncic – Over 8.5 Assists (-107)
I’m just going to refer to this as a Luka’s pissed, play.
If you saw the end of the Mavericks/Bucks game last night, you’d know why. Down by one with seconds left, Milwaukee clearly knew what ATO Dallas wanted to run and Jrue Holiday was able to shield Doncic and keep him from getting up anything close to a good look for the win.
Luka was furious – whether with himself, his coaches, or teammates is unclear – and stormed off after his shot fell short. I promise you he’s still mad which makes this an absolute nightmare scenario for Chicago.
The Bulls have absolutely no recourse to stop Doncic. Alex Caruso can hang individually but this defense isn’t built to stop any superstar, let alone one as creative and undeniable as Doncic. The Bulls are 29th in opponent APG and also bottom-ten in opponent three-point shooting, meaning I expect Doncic to absolutely carve up this defense.
In terms of situational trends, Doncic has gone over this number in eight of his last 11 games, both of his last two back-to-backs, and each of his last five meetings vs. the Bulls (dating back to his sophomore season in the league). Don’t overthink this, take the over.
Steph Curry – Over 4.5 3PM (+106)
We don’t know exactly how Joe Mazzulla is going to defend Steph Curry and the Warriors because we’ve never seen it. We also don’t know what personnel the Celtics are going to have because, out of nowhere, Robert Williams is questionable for this game. That said, it doesn’t matter. Curry over.
In all seriousness, I expect Boston to stick with what they did in the Finals. Namely, they aren’t going to trap Curry up top. They will drop their centers to prevent easy layups and 4-on-3s which, as a result, will leave the greatest shooter we’ve ever seen step into as many semi-contested threes at the top of the arc as he wants.
From a pure recency perspective, this play doesn’t make a ton of sense. Curry has 5+ 3PM in three of his last seven games and 12 of 23 games this season but that isn’t the lens through which I’m viewing this game. This is the type of game and stage that Curry absolutely shows out on.
Andrew Wiggins is out. The Celtics are 21-5. Curry has four days’ rest for a Primetime game, at home, against a Finals foe, as an underdog. The coverage entering this game is built around whether the Warriors can even keep up with this historic Celtic offense and, as we know, Steph hears everything. Over.
Pacific Action 
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