Get ready for three of Saturday’s biggest games with my favorite NBA Player Props featuring Deandre Ayton, Tim Hardaway Jr, and why even Joel Embiid and the 76ers won’t slow down Nikola Jokic’s playmaking!!
Nikola Jokic – Over 9.5 Assists (-136)
This prop is heavily weighted to the over for a reason. Jokic simply gets 10+ assists game in, game out.
He’s gone over this number in 13 of his last 17 games. 12 of his last 15 when Jamal Murray also plays. The Nuggets have become the second-best offense and second-best shooting team in the NBA this season regardless of how much Jokic is contributing to the scoring himself. He’s a playmaker first and that isn’t going to change in this matchup, even against an emotionally-charged opponent.
Jokic tends to be really aggressive in early tips. He’s only played in three games that tipped before 4PM local time in the last two seasons but he’s averaging 60.3 PTS+REB+AST in those games. Aggressive has meant more scoring in the past but I expect more playmaking here and for him to play into his recent trend. Over.
Deandre Ayton – Over 32.5 PTS+REB+AST (-117)
In San Antonio’s last nine games, they’ve allowed 43 PRA to Jusuf Nurkic, 29 to Ivica Zubac, 30 to Nic Claxton, 44 to Domantas Sabonis 31 to Kevon Looney, 34 and 32 to Steven Adams (in two games), and 34 to Anthony Davis in his 26-minute return from injury on Wednesday. That covers just about the entire spectrum of centers in today’s NBA, and all of them had real success – based on their individual standards – against this Spurs defense.
Ayton has been up and down of late but he’s been consistently effective against bad interior defenses. Since Devin Booker’s injury, he’s put up 43 and 41 PRS in two meetings with the Wizards and 42 against the Nets. Elite defenses can limit Ayton’s effectiveness but, when the matchup is in his favor, his physical gifts are overwhelming.
Ayton had 41 PRA in 31 minutes during his return from illness on Thursday despite battling dizziness as he reacclimated to game speed. He had 19 points on 6-20 shooting – which you’d expect to improve for a player with a career 60 percent FG% – but dominated the glass with 20 rebounds.
Even if he is still a little inefficient from the field – which is possible, but not expected – his PRA floor is still incredibly high thanks to his rebounding. I think a big night is in store for Ayton against this Spurs defense. Over.
Tim Hardaway Jr. – Under 19.5 Points (-109)
Luka Doncic and Christian Wood are both out for the Mavericks tonight meaning it’s going to be the Spencer Dinwiddie show against the Jazz. Not only is that fortunate news for Utah, it’s bad news for Hardaway Jr.
THJ has gone under this number in three of the four games he’s played without Doncic this season. 61 percent of THJ’s total points have come from threes this season and 91.5 percent of his threes are assisted. He is almost exclusively a spot-up, catch-and-shoot option in this Mavericks system and, though Dinwiddie can approximate what Doncic does, Dallas’ support players are still going to struggle.
In the 12 games THJ has scored 20+ points this season, nine have come in games where he’s made 5+ threes. The problem is, apart from the play-making aspect, the Jazz hold opponents to the fourth-fewest 3PM in the league, just 11.3 per game.
When you consider his 3PM prop is currently at just 3.5 and heavily weighted toward the under, this just doesn’t add up. Hardaway has scored 20+ points just twice in the 31 games he’s failed to make 4+ threes. Unless he breaks the mold and gets unpredictably hot from deep, he is going under.
Pacific Action 
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