Get ready for three of Friday’s biggest games with my favorite NBA Player Props featuring Tyler Herro, Jarrett Allen, and why LaMelo Ball will have another big scoring night against the vaunted Celtics defense!!
LaMelo Ball – Over 23.5 Points (-124)
While, on paper, this is should be one of the tougher matchups in the league for a player like Ball, he has historically had success against the Celtics defense. In his two games vs. Boston earlier this season, Ball scored 31 and 25 points. He also went over in two of four games vs. the Celtics last season.
This also isn’t exactly the Celtics defense you might be thinking of. They’ve fallen back to the pack a little over the past couple of weeks without Marcus Smart, having games with defensive ratings north of 112 in four of eight games including pedestrian offenses like the Knicks and Magic. They are, however, still elite at limiting assists which may neutralize Ball’s playmaking a big and encourage him to be more aggressive as a scorer.
Charlotte just traded away Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels which should elevate JT Thor and Mark Williams in the rotation, both of whom are pretty low-usage players. The Hornets are running out of above-average offensive players which only puts the onus more on Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward. Given all of those factors pushing him to be more of a scorer, I expect a big night from Ball.
Tyler Herro – Over 22.5 Points (-112)
Miami didn’t end up making any major moves at the deadline – despite a lot of noise surrounding Kyle Lowry (who’s out tonight) – indicating to me that they are confident in this roster being playoff-caliber. More specifically, that tells me they have a lot of faith in Herro.
Herro is already a major piece of this offense, obviously, but I expect his role to expand even more the further we go into the season. And what better spot to showcase that than against the atrocious Rockets defense.
Houston has maybe the worst perimeter defense in the league and allows the most threes in the league. Plus, they just traded Eric Gordon who isn’t exactly Gary Payton but has been their best perimeter defender all season.
Herro dropped 41 points the last time these teams played and the Heat have moved to a limited eight-man lineup over the past few games, indicating Erik Spoelstra is going to lean heavily on his stars for the rest of the season.
There is always a concern for a blowout limiting the ceiling of stars in a game vs. a bottom-feeder like Houston but Miami has only won by 20+ points twice all season so the risk is dramatically minimized. I expect Herro to be a featured part of the offense tonight and comfortably go over this number.
Jarrett Allen – Over 27.5 PTS+REB+AST (-110)
This play is a combination of a couple of things: recent trends (Allen has gone over this number in four-straight games) and matchups (the Pelicans have terrible interior defense and Allen has a lot of success against traditional centers).
Allen had maybe his best game all season the last time these teams played, dropping 24 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists. That was a game where Zion Williamson was out and all of Cleveland’s main stars played (just like tonight), telling me he should be featured quite a bit again this evening.
Earlier I said the Pelicans have terrible interior defense. That was an understatement. They have the worst interior defense in the league. They allow the highest FG% from inside eight feet in the NBA and Jonas Valanciunas is one of the league impactful rim protectors in the league.
Just in their last six games, the Pelicans have gotten absolutely shredded by Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and (the biggest star of them all) Daniel Gafford.
Obviously, Allen isn’t in that same stratosphere of offensive star (Gafford excluded) but it goes to show that bigs who can put consistent and effective pressure on the rim have a ton of success against the Pelicans and Allen does fall into that category. I expect him to continue his hot streak and go over this number tonight.
Pacific Action 
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