Denver is one win away from their first title so get ready for Game 5 with my favorite NBA Player Props featuring Michael Porter Jr., Kevin Love and how Nikola Jokic will live up to his crowning moment!!
Kevin Love – Under 6.5 Points (-130)
Love scored 12 points in Game 4 of this series but that explosion – by his standards – came off him shooting 3-5 from three with an And-1 tacked on, a level of production I don’t expect him to replicate tonight.
For one, Love had gone under this number in eight of his previous nine games (that he appeared in) entering Game 4. He has exclusively become a 3PT spot-up player in this series and 21 of his 24 points in this series (88 percent) have come via the long ball. The hook is absolutely vital here as he can still go 2-4 or 2-5 from three and go under this number.
When Miami went back to Love in the starting lineup to open Game 2, the adjustment worked. His size threw a wrench into Denver’s plans and his spacing opened up the Heat offense. Since then, the Nuggets solved that problem and the Heat were massively negative with Love on the floor in both games in Miami.
With Caleb Martin back healthy and playing 30+ minutes in each of the last two games, I expect him to eat into even more of Love’s minutes and production tonight. Honestly the biggest risk is that Martin re-enters the starting lineup and Love DNP’s again like at the end of the Celtic series but, if he remains in the same role he’s been in for the last three games, I love the value of this under (no pun intended).
Michael Porter Jr. – Over 16.5 PTS+REB+AST (-130)
Entering Game 2, Porter had gone over this number in 14 of 16 games in these playoffs, averaging 24.7 PRA. The following three games were a disasterclass as he fell into bit player status as Denver stepped within a game of a title, but it’s a perfect time to buy low.
This is a career 41 percent 3PT sniper who has shot just 3-22 from three in this series. All other Nuggets are combining to shoot 44 percent in this series so it’s not Miami’s defense, it’s just a funk from Porter that he’s bound to break out of.
He’s also coming off one of his worst rebounding games of these playoffs. Before grabbing just three rebounds in Game 4, Porter had grabbed 6+ in 14 of 18 Playoff games. Even in this series as his minutes have been yanked around Porter is averaging 11.8 rebound chances per game so he should have plenty of chances to be productive on the glass.
The Heat are going to fight like hell to get this series back to Miami and I doubt the Nuggets are going to get repeat scoring performances from Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown. Denver hasn’t needed MPJ to do a ton in this series but I expect him to find his form tonight and have the breakout game we’ve all been waiting for.
Nikola Jokic – Over 22.5 REB+AST (-125)
Jokic had just 16 REB+AST in Game 4 but he hasn’t gone under this number in back to back games since Games 1 and 2 vs Minnesota in Round 1. Since then, he’s hit in 10 of 17 and averaged 23.6 REB+AST per game.
So far in the Finals, he’s averaging 21.5 rebound chances per game, just a hair under the 22.1 he averaged in the first three rebounds. So while he’s finished with 12 or fewer boards in three of four games in this series, he’s largely been unlucky as he had 13+ rebounds in 9 of 15 games entering this series.
Jokic hasn’t been as aggressive a playmaker in this series as we typically expect as Jamal Murray has taken over that mantle, but trends say Jokic is due for a big assist game. He’s had 10+ assists in four of his last five home games and, during the regular season, he averaged 11.1 APG at home compared to 8.5 on the road. Coming off four assist performances in Game 4, I think he’ll aggressively look to get his teammates involved tonight.
This is set to be his coronation and I can’t think of a better way for Jokic to celebrate than by putting up an absurd statline jam-packed with rebounds and assists. I think he bounces back from a lackluster Game 4, and crushes this number.
Pacific Action 
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