Miami Heat Team Preview

2020-21 Record: 40-32 82-Game Projected Record: 46-36

2020-21 Pythagorean Record: 36-36 82-Game Pythagorean Projection: 41-41

2021-22 Line: 48.0 Wins (4th in Eastern Conference)

Key Additions:

The Heat jump started the summer with the sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry.

Lowry’s production took a hit last season but he’s the exact type of defender and shot-maker that Miami needs out in the backcourt next to Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson. It’s a really nice fit. I don’t know how much we can expect out of the 35-year-old on a nightly basis during the regular season but he dramatically elevates the ceiling for this team.

They also brought in PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris to shore up their frontcourt behind Bam Adebayo.

I see Tucker as one of the best pickups any team had this summer. I truly don’t understand why the Bucks let him go. Yes, all he does on offense stand in the corner and knock down ~35 percent of his threes but he’s a remarkably crafty and experienced defender. He was Milwaukee’s primary matchup for Kevin Durant and now Miami gets to add him to an already stacked defensive group.

Morris is more of question mark but he brings some much-needed shooting to this group. If he’s hitting shots, great, he’ll be a rotation fixture. If he’s not, he’ll be a bench player. It’s a totally adequate low risk, high reward signing for that spot.

Miami also added DJ Steward as an undrafted rookie, Caleb Martin on a two-way and re-signed Omer Yertseven who was already in the organization. Steward will likely spend the season in the G League and Martin will only get spot minutes but Yertseven’s dominance in Summer League says that there’s at least a small chance he could jump Dewayne Dedmon and be Miami’s fourth big this season.

Key Losses:

Miami lost quite a bit of talent this summer, most notably Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa who made up the trade package sent to Toronto for Lowry.

Dragic was instrumental in Miami’s run to the Finals but he took a major step back last season. Age might be catching up with him and it’s pretty clear that Lowry is both a better player at this point and a better fit for what Miami needs from that spot.

The real price of the trade, therefore, was Achiuwa. He’s still very young and has a long career ahead of him but I don’t see a ton of star potential. I have no doubt he’ll thrive in Toronto but this is a clear win-win for both teams.

The bench is going to have massive turnover this season with Andre Iguodala and Nemanja Bjelica signing with Golden State, and Kendrick Nunn and Trevor Ariza signing with Los Angeles.

It’s hard to know how big these losses will be. Morris replaces Bjelica pretty perfectly so I think the Heat are fine there. Ariza and Iguodala are well past their primes but they provided vet experience behind Jimmy Butler that this rotation no longer has. Nunn had his ups and downs in year two but he looked to be the clear cut backup point guard.

None of these losses break the rotation on their own but, when added together, Miami’s depth took a pretty massive hit this summer.

Heat 2021-22 Projected Depth Chart

Biggest Strength – Defense

All the cliches about defense and championships are true, and Miami has put their name in the conversation for the best in the league.

Lowry and Tucker have both lost a step as individual defenders but are still fantastic in a team scheme. Oladipo much the same and he still has All-Defense upside if he’s close to 100%. Butler and Adebayo are the absolute elite of the elite for their positions.

Even if there are liabilities around them – most notably Herro and Robinson – the defensive potential of that five-man lineup is as high as any group in the league.

This was the 10th-best defense in the NBA a year ago with Butler missing 20 games and Adebayo missing eight. I’d be shocked if this team finishes outside of the top-five this season with their ceiling even higher during the playoffs.

One Key Question – What version of Herro do we get this year?

Contrary to the common perception, Herro wasn’t actually bad last season. He regressed a bit from his very good rookie numbers – and certainly hasn’t been good enough to be the reported sticking point in a deal for James Harden – but he still showed promise as a 21-year-old bench scorer.

Season	Games	PPG	eFG%	APG	TO	TRB	3PA	3P%
2019-20	55	13.5	52.0	2.2	1.6	4.1	5.4	38.9%
2020-21	54	15.1	51.6	3.4	1.9	5.0	5.5	36.0%

His raw production actually improved off his rookie season, it was his efficiency that suffered. 51.6 eFG% isn’t awful for a high-volume scorer but it’s also not as high as you’d hope if you see him developing into a truly elite scorer.

This roster is built for Herro to be a second unit star right now and a first unit star moving forward. The Lou Williams/Jamal Crawford of today and the Zach LaVine of tomorrow.

The Heat can still be good with the version of Herro we saw last season. For them to jump up into the top four, however, they need him to start reaching the top end of those very lofty expectations.

The Case for Over 48.0 wins:

• If the defense is as elite as I think it can be, then this team should comfortably be a top-five defense in the league. If that is the case, then this only has to be a league-average offense for this team to comfortably hit 49 wins.

• This roster isn’t stacked with shooting, but I think it will be dramatically improved compared to last season. The Heat took the 11th-most threes in the league last year but shot just 35.8 percent. Robinson is the shooting superstar – and is now paid like it – but I think Herro bouncing back plus the additions of Lowry, Morris and (a hopefully healthy) Oladipo should make the Heat a significantly improved shooting team.

• This was one of the weaker big men rotations in the league last season but I think it will be notably better this season. Going from Bejelica and Achiuwa to Tucker and Morris is a pretty significant upgrade. Just having more bodies that you can rely on night in and night out should help the overall consistency of this team over an 82-game season.

• The final factor is very hard to quantify, but “Heat Culture” always seems to help this team. Something about playing in Miami – and the opponent nightlife advantage that provides – plus the extraordinary coaching always gives this team a couple win boost over what you’d expect. This team has out-won it’s pythagorean expectation for three out of the last four seasons and I think there’s something to that other than just random chance.

The Case for Under 48.0 wins:

• This franchise has never really cared about the regular season. Even leading into their 2020 Finals run, this team finished sixth in the East at just 44-29. They brought in Lowry, Tucker and Morris to compete for a title, not regular season wins. There’s a very real chance they coast through the regular season and ease off the gas before they hit 48 wins.

• I framed the fact that they’ve out-won their expect record for three of the past four years as a positive earlier, but it’s certainly possible that was just random luck. This team may be due for a reverse in that fortune and, if so, 47 or fewer wins is certainly on the table.

• Who is Lowry’s backup? Is it a platoon of Herro and Oladipo? Is it really going to be Gabe Vincent? Is it Butler? If they don’t make some roster changes to have a definitive answer to that question, I fear they may be putting too big of a load on Lowry’s shoulders in the regular season.

• The one area of this defense that is concerning is the rim protection. They were last in blocked shots last season and 18th in opponent FG% in the restricted area. Tucker and Lowry will help with the perimeter defense but they do nothing to help the rim protection and this may continue to be a very porous interior.

• Does this team need a Jae Crowder type to thrive? Crowder was the perfect floor-spacing, versatile defender for the Heat during the title run. Tucker and Morris each do some of that but they’re both more four/five tweeners than Crowder who’s more of a three/four. Crowder was a great fit next to Adebayo and I’m not sure they have the frontcourt rotation quite as nailed as they did in 2020.

My Pick: Over 48.0 wins

I love the construction of this team. I think they have an incredibly high ceiling and are a legitimate threat to reach the Conference Finals.

I am slightly concerned they will care more about just getting to the playoff healthy rather than fighting for wins, but I think they are comfortably more talented than their 48 win total should suggest.

I think with the talent Miami added this offseason, they’ve made it a clear top four in the East. They’re a notch behind Milwaukee and Brooklyn but I have them right there with Philadelphia who’s win total is 3.5 games higher which indicates to me this team is undervalued.