LA Clippers Team Preview

2020-21 Record: 47-25 82-Game Projection: 54-28

2020-21 Pythagorean Record: 49-23 82-Game Pythagorean Projection: 56-26

2021-22 Line: 44.5 Wins (Tied-7th in Western Conference)

Key Additions:

The Clippers were relatively active around the margins this summer, beefing up their depth while keeping the core intact.

They traded for Eric Bledsoe – and his $18 million salary – to be the primary backup point guard to Reggie Jackson this season. Bledsoe’s strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear at this point. He’s a very good on-ball defender and a capable passer, but he’s a very below-average shooter and doesn’t get to the line anymore. I don’t hate the idea of consolidating multiple flawed veteran point guards into a single flawed veteran point guard, but I don’t think he moves the needle for this team.

The Clippers also signed Justise Winslow, Harry Giles, Isaiah Hartenstein, Yogi Ferrell to fill out the back end of the rotaiton.

Injuries have derailed any momentum Winslow had early in his career and he’s only appeared in 37 (unimpressive) games since the start of the 2019-20 season. He is a theoretically solid defender and can play some point-forward, but he’s more of a high upside swing and I don’t think you can count on him being available for an entire season.

Giles is another hope at getting something out of a once-promising injury risk, but I expect him to have a bigger role. He’s an excelent passer with no major holes in his game and I think he’ll play quite a bit this season given the uncertainty surrounding Serge Ibaka.

Hartenstein is still young and a potential stretch-big option but I don’t see much of a path towards him being a rotation fixture. Ferrell is a totally adequate third point guard but there’s no path – baring injuries – to him being any more than that.

In the draft, LA selected Keon Johnson 21st overall and Brandon Boston at 51. Johnson has a ton of upside and will be an elite NBA athlete. I think he’ll play spot minutes as a rookie given his potential, but expect far more highlights than consistency. Boston was one of the highest-rated recruits in the country a year ago but never found his way at Kentucky. There’s always hope he re-finds his game at the NBA level, but he seems G-League bound.

Key Losses:

The price for acquiring Bledsoe was moving on from Rajon Rondo and Patrick Beverley. Like I mentioned, choosing to combine them into one makes sense and, while LA may have lost some playoff equity in Rondo, I think they raised their regular season ceiling a bit with Bledsoe.

Patrick Patterson signed with Portland but I can’t really see this mattering too much. The idea of Patterson has been a lot better than his actual production for the last couple seasons and I think the Clippers will be fine Marcus Morris filling the stretch-four role.

DeMarcus Cousins is currently un-signed but, like the other losses, I don’t really see an issue moving on from Boogie. He could always come back and play a similar bit role as he did last season, but the Clippers should be okay regardless.

The true loss of the summer, however, is obviously Kawhi Leonard.

Leonard tore his ACL on June 14th and had surgery to repair it exactly a month later on July 14th. It’s possible he returns towards the end of the regular season but all reporting indicates that it’s unlikely we see him until the start of the 2022 season.

The absence of Leonard is the reason LA’s line is so much lower than their production last season would suggest. He’s their best offensive player, their best defender and their ticket to title contention. This still could be a good team but both their ceiling and floor have been lowered dramatically by his absence.

2021-22 Projected Clippers Depth Chart

Biggest Strength: Balance?

Strangely enough, this is a good team without one defined strength any more. It used to be the duo of Leonard and George but now this is a roster without a real identity.

Their two main point guards are solid and George is outstanding but the off-guard depth is pretty pedestrian. Batum is coming off a very good year, Winslow could be a nice pickup and they have center depth but it’s hard to know how much to expect out of them on a given night.

While it’s not flashy but the Clippers’ strength is really the absence of any clear weakness. That may sound backhanded but I truly think it’s going to help them win quite a few games this season.

One Key Question: Does Batum turn back into a pumpkin?

Batum was a revelation last year. He looked like he was back in his Portland prime, not the player who was getting routine DNPs in Charlotte.

Without Leonard this season, he may now be the second most-important player on the roster. He’s their starting power forward and small-ball center. He’s the second-best wing defender behind George and one of the best shooters on the roster. He’s the 32-year-old key to just about everything Ty Lue wants to do this season.

The Clippers were +8.9 when Batum was on the court last season and just +3.6 without him. In the playoffs, that split was +13.0 when he was on and -7.9 when he was off.

If his transformation from replacement-level to foundational role player was just a one-year blip, this team is in massive trouble. Batum is now one of the most crucial non-stars in the entire NBA.

The Case for Over 44.5 Wins:

• This was one of the best shooting teams in NBA history last season. That’s not hyperbole, just look at all the red in their shot-chart. They shot 1.9 percent better from three than the second-best Nets and had six players on the roster make at least 100 threes while shooting above 39 percent. They have an incredibly deep shooting arsenal and, while losing Leonard hurts, I expect they’ll be at or near the top of the league in 3P% once again.

• The Clippers run through Utah in the West Semis and battle against Phoenix in the WCF provided yet another piece of evidence that George is at his best when he’s the undisputed best player on a team. I don’t get it, it doesn’t make a ton of sense , but it’s clear that he’s more comfortable when he knows his role and doesn’t have to throttle in and out of the spotlight. I think it’s likely he’s due for his best season as a Clipper.

• Speaking of their playoff run, we just saw this team be incredibly successful at some of the highest levels in the NBA. They ran through the team with the best record in the NBA during the regular season and gave the Suns a real fight. This roster won’t compete for a title, but this is a very good basketball team even without Leonard and they can easily win 45 games.

• I also think Ty Lue is one of the best coaches in the NBA. I expect he’s up for the challenge of this season and think he’ll be able to get quite a bit out of this group during the regular season.

The Case for Under 44.5 Wins:

• The Clippers were -0.1 points per 100 possessions without Leonard on the court last season, or effectively a 41-win team. They are returning a lot of the same roster from a year ago which would indicate to me it’s unlikely they’ll be significantly better in those minutes this season.

• There’s also the chance that some of their older players don’t have another productive season in them. I mentioned that possibility for Batum earlier but Ibaka was a non-factor in the playoffs due to a back injury. Maybe Batum replicates last season and Ibaka is back to his Toronto levels, but it’s also realistic to think either or both could fall off and leave a hole in the rotation.

• I mentioned their biggest strength as balance because I couldn’t find a real calling card that separates them from the competition; that should be kind of alarming. This is by no means a bad team, but not having a defined strength can get you into trouble when you inevitably face adversity during the regular season.

My Pick: Over 44.5 Wins

I don’t know why, but I really believe in this team. It feels strange to put faith in the Clippers but this is a talented roster supported by elite infrastructure and I think that will be enough for LA to finish in the top-eight and hit 45+ wins.

I don’t see them winning a playoff series – and certainly not making a run back to the WCF – but this is a deep, consistent rotation that should have more success than failure during the regular season.