LAC @ Philadelphia
The Clippers are overmatched in this game. Joel Embiid has scored 30+ points in 11 of his last 12 games and has carried the 76ers to wins in 10 of those games. He’s firmly put himself in the MVP conversation and I have no reason to expect anything other than an MVP-type performance from him tonight.
The Clippers have no reason to expect anything else either. They don’t have much hope in slowing Embiid down, so their best shot in this game is to simply try and out-gun the Sixers.
This is far from the team we saw in last year’s WCF, but I think their game plan may look similar. The Clippers will look to play small in this game and force Embiid to guard in space rather than camp around the rim where he’s most comfortable. I don’t expect that strategy to work, but I do think it will translate to a faster pace and better offense for both teams, so I’m taking the over.
Pick: Over 213
Portland @ Boston
The spread for this game is hovering right in that in-between zone. They don’t quite trust the Celtics to make them double-digit favorites, but no one trusts this version of the Trail Blazers to give them anything less than a touchdown.
I have very little faith in this Portland team, but I don’t have much confidence in Boston either. My numbers have Boston as just 4.5-point favorites in this game, so I begrudgingly am taking Portland here. Here’s hoping Anferne Simmons and CJ McCollum are enough to carry this offense.
Pick: Trail Blazers +8.5
Chicago @ Milwaukee
This is another game where I feel the spread is a handful of points too high.
A month ago, Chicago might have been favored in this game. But, since that time, the Bulls have been handed a ton of injuries to Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and others, while the Bucks have finally gotten healthy and started to look like the title team we saw last summer.
Even with those trends in mind, I think Vegas has slightly overvalued Milwaukee here.
We remember the highs of the Bucks killing the Nets and Warriors and the lows of the Bulls getting killed by those same Nets and Warriors, but there has been a lot more middle ground over the past couple of weeks.
If those versions of Milwaukee and Chicago show up, this could be a bloodbath; but I expect this to be a middle-ground game. I’m taking the Bulls and the points.
Pick: Bulls +11
Memphis @ Denver
Styles make fights and these teams have dramatically different styles.
The Grizzlies want to get out and run to punish you with Ja Morant in the open court. The Nuggets want to slow everything down and let Nikola Jokic dissect your defense in the halfcourt.
Whichever team is more successful in implementing their style will likely win this game, and I’m putting my money on the Nuggets winning that fight. However, I don’t see a ton of value on the spread given Denver is 3.5-point favorites in this one. Where I do see value, though, is on the total.
Given the fact that I expect this to trend towards Denver’s 25th-ranked pace and Memphis will be without Dillon Brooks, Desmond Bane and others, I’m taking the under at 224.5.
Pick: Under 225
Pacific Action 
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